So after watching Adelaide United fail yet again to win at home, are their chances of play-off action finally over?
Mathematically with such a small spread of points between the bottom six sides of course not, but looking at the draw then you’d have to say it’s unlikely.
Two away games are next on the calendar, against Sydney & Gold Coast, then it’s consecutive home games against Central Coast and Perth.
Melbourne and Wellington follow in two (at this point in time) impossible looking away trips, before the final home game against the Roar and a season ending trip to Newcastle.
Ignoring the fact that United has the worst away record in the league, they have only once won in Sydney, are yet to play on the Gold Coast, have no idea how to beat the Victory, but generally do well in New Zealand where the Reds are yet to lose to the Phoenix.
Adelaide does have a decent record at home to the Mariners and Perth, and despite two home defeats to Brisbane, generally gets results against the Roar.
That leaves a trip to Newcastle where United has had mixed results, but has not won there since season one of the A-League.
So based on those stats, United could quite possibly:
Lose to Sydney, lose to the Gold Coast, beat the Mariners and Perth, lose to Melbourne, draw with the ‘Nix, defeat Brisbane and draw with the Jets.
Tally up the points from those eight games and the total reaches 11, and add that to what the Reds have now and the magic number is 32.
Melbourne has already surpassed that and Sydney needs another point, with Gold Coast five points shy.
The club currently in 6th is Perth with 23 from 18 games played and aside from the game in Adelaide the Glory’s run home reads:
Gold Coast (a), Jets (h) , Sydney (h), Victory (a), then Adelaide, Wellington (h), Mariners (h), Sydney (a) and Brisbane (h).
It’s not an easy draw but wins at home to the Jets, Wellington and Brisbane are definitely good bets, and that would give them 32 points.
The Mariners 5th (24 points) should also rack up another eight points against:
Bris (h), Sydney (a), Wellington (h), North Queensland (h), Adel (a), Gold Coast (h), Perth (a) and Jets (h).
And just to be sure, the Jets (4th, 25 points) have these remaining nine games to contemplate.
Fury (h), Perth (a), Victory (h), Gold Coast (a), Bris (a), Sydney (h), Fury (a), Mariners (a), Adelaide (h), Wellington (a).
To be sure this is a tough run, so the game against Adelaide looks key, but with two matches against the Fury confidence must be high that the Jets can also surpass 32 points.
Of course, Adelaide could go on a massive run and rack up more than 11 points in their remaining eight games, but after the draw against the ‘Nix, it’s hard to see it happening.
There was, as per usual, plenty of endeavour but no real end product, and if Matthew Leckie’s dicky knee really flares up then it that might just be the end of the road for the Reds.
Aurelio Vidmar looks like he has some major work to do before the ACL starts in February.